Here's the problem, and it is a real high-quality problem: If you have been listening to me, you are struggling right now with the size of your gold position. I think it should be up to 20% of your portfolio. But for some of us -- like in my retirement plan -- gold is now 30%. It has just moved up. It is too big. It is now the swing factor.
Now I don't mind that it is so big. There are plenty of places that are worse than gold.
However, to buy more here if you have that kind of exposure is just averaging up in the worst way. No thanks.
If you want to buy gold, let's go over the pecking order. First, I like bullion, no markup if bought at one of the big firms ... but you have to store it, and you don't want to do so in your house.
Then I like the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD_), which, because of convenience, is a near-perfect proxy that I am not worried about in terms of the possibility that there is no "gold" there. I know people are worried after the University of Texas is taking physical delivery of its gold. But I think that the GLD is set up well and is about a perfect an investment vehicle for those who want exposure. Put simply, the GLD tracks gold much better than the other ETFs track other physical commodities.
Then I like the gold stocks, particularly Goldcorp (GG_) and Barrick (ABX_) for blue-chip and Novagold (NG_) for speculation. I don't care that Barrick diversified heavily into some copper with the Equinox bid. Goldcorp has the best, most consistent growth. Novagold is a total call on the upside of gold, as it's just now doing feasibility studies on gigantic north American mines that you may see nothing from in the next five years. But it is the best unexplored property in the safest areas on earth. Why not all gold stocks? The cost of finding and digging has gone way up, so many of these gold stocks have not kept pace.
How about coins? I would love them, but the markup's too great to swallow and there is no reason to buy a coin that is trading out of whack with the actual metal.
So bullion, GLD, stocks, then coins.
Only, though, if you don't own any. Leave room for a downdraft for gold after Ben Bernanke speaks on Wednesday. If he does anything that will be interpreted as a reason to sell bonds -- and therefore raise interest rates -- gold will get hurt, as it thrives in low-interest-rate environments.
But remember, gold has outperformed all assets in the last decade -- all of them -- in both high and low interest rates, so don't expect too big a downturn. Way too many people want in, and way too many have too little exposure. No wonder it keeps going higher!
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Novagold.
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