The reliance upon the U.S.
dollar as the world's reserve currency and "safe haven" asset has
created a perverse, but deeply entrenched, mindset among global investors. In
fact, many believe the major financial players have no alternatives to owning
U.S. debt and dollars. They argue that the market for U.S. dollars and
Treasuries is the only financial pool large enough to handle the massive
liquidity that sloshes around the globe on a daily basis. This idea makes a
mass exodus from U.S. debt holdings seem impossible. This provides a nice
explanation why the U.S. Treasury bonds can rally even while the government
openly flirts with default and ratings agencies issue downgrades. But just
because an illogical event occurs habitually does not mean it is logical or
tenable.
The sophomoric reasoning
behind the dollar "exceptionalism" argument is like assuming a stock
can never fall unless a significant portion of shareholders decide to sell. In
reality, a buyers strike is all that is needed to puncture a market. If the
U.S. experienced just one disastrous Treasury auction, prices could nose-dive
and yields could skyrocket across the board on all U.S. debt.
But the problem doesn't just
lie with the United States. Investors around the world are finally beginning to
understand that central bank's thirst for creating inflation, in order to keep
their banks and governments solvent, will never be quenched.
This week, the Swiss
government took action to weaken the surging franc by lowering interest rates
and printing currency. The franc was pushed down briefly, but then snapped
back. It's hard to keep a good currency down. Similarly, the Bank of Japan
announced that it won't stand for Yen appreciation much longer and would likely
soon intervene to buy dollars and weaken the Yen.
Meanwhile, problems at the
overly indebted countries just get worse. Italian and Spanish debt yields are
now following the upward spiral of Greek bonds (and hitting multi year highs).
Italian ten-year notes have surged from just above 3% in late 2010 to well over
6% today. For a country whose debt to GDP ratio is currently over 120%, a doubling
of interest rate expenses spells disaster.
Enter Jean Claude Trichet who
will certainly use his printing press to buy much of the weakening Italian debt
that is now festering on the balance sheets of the biggest European banks. But
the size of the bailouts needed to deal with Italian and Spanish debts will be
several orders of magnitude greater than those needed for Ireland or Greece.
Anticipating a massive increase in the Euro money supply, investors are
flocking to gold to protect themselves from currency debasement.
Adding fuel to the gold fire
is the recent debt deal reached in Washington. The disgusting agreement
virtually assures that over the next decade the U.S. will add an additional $8
trillion in public debt, an increase of nearly 80% in ten years! The
back-end-loaded deal will cause the amount of deficit reduction to be just $21
billion in 2012 and $42 billion in 2013.
But even this modest debt
reduction depends on rosy assumptions from Washington that are always wrong.
For example, the Obama administration predicts GDP growth will average well
over 3% for the coming decade. But the annualized GDP growth in the first half
of 2011 was just 0.9%. That means the actual deficit and debt figures will be
far greater than the projections. Given the immediate increase in borrowing
needs, and the obvious slowing of the tepid "recovery," there can be
little doubt that the next round of quantitative easing will be launched sooner
rather than later.
The incompetency of U.S.
credit rating agencies has long been suspected. But their actions in the wake
of the debt ceiling agreement now confirm them as liars. After threatening to
downgrade U.S. credit if Washington failed to cut $4 trillion in spending,
neither Moody's, Fitch nor S&P had the courage to carry through, despite
the fact that the total cuts would amount to only half their requirements. But
a credit rating downgrade on Treasuries did come-from China. The Dagong Global
Credit Rating agency cut the credit rating on U.S. sovereign debt to A from A+,
5 notches below AAA. And since the Chinese are the biggest foreign buyer of
Treasuries, their opinion counts.
This week, more evidence of
U.S. stagflation emerged. The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports
showed a slowdown in new orders and employment and the ADP report showed that
the U.S. lost 7,000 goods-producing jobs in July. Other data releases showed
that layoffs surged 60% last month to a 16-month high. Meanwhile, YOY consumer
prices are up 3.6% and M2 money supply is up 7.5% YOY and rising at a 14.6%
annual rate in the last quarter. As the problem with stagflation becomes worse,
international investors will avoid the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt at an ever
increasing rate.
With soaring debt-to-GDP
ratios in Japan, Western Europe and America, the desirability of owning
precious metals will grow as investors realize the fiat currency system's days
are numbered. Those holding U.S. dollars and U.S. debt will feel the biggest
brunt of the change. But it is always darkest before the dawn. As a result of
the carnage, the re-establishment of gold as the world's reserve currency is,
hopefully, only a few years away.
Our site offers an outstanding analysis of the current state of gold and precious metals and their
prospects for the future. Check out the "Buy Gold and Silver" page for further information.